I recently interviewed Riccardo Valentini, Professor of Forest Ecology at the University of Tuscia (Italy), and 2007 Peace Nobel prize recipient (with the IPCC), about the climate crisis. 2024 is shaping up to be one of the warmest years on record. Earth Day is approaching fast (April).
Here is what he had to say: we should move now!
Professor Valentini, how sick is our planet?
According to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) are at their highest in 800,000 years. In the last fifty years alone, GHG emissions have increased 2.5 times, freshwater withdrawal has doubled, and the availability of agricultural land per capita has halved (from 1.4 to 0.7 hectares).
AR6 states that “observed changes in the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and biosphere provide unequivocal evidence of a warming world.” The Earth will be 1.4 to 4.4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. In addition, the 1.5 and 2°C limits of the Paris Agreement will be violated unless there are rapid and rigorous cuts in emissions of CO2 and other GHGs.
Who suffers the most? How?
Climate change is affecting several global critical sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, freshwater, and oceans; and it is augmenting the vulnerability of less developed countries. For example, the agri-food sector uses about 80% of the world’s freshwater, 30% of the world’s energy, and it represents more than 37% of manmade GHG emissions, including indirect emissions, such as those from deforestation. In some regions of the world, such as the tropics and parts of the temperate regions, increased climate extremes will negatively affect the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, with a 35% yield reduction in African countries and a 2% reduction globally, per each decade, while food demand is increasing.
At the same time, we expect deadly extreme weather events around the world to increase significantly. The AR6 says it is virtually certain that “the frequency and intensity of warm extremes have increased and those of cold extremes have decreased on a global scale since 1950.” As for extreme precipitation’ events, the report concludes that their frequency and intensity “are likely to have increased on a global scale in most terrestrial regions with good observational coverage. Human influence is probably the main driver.” Climate change is causing ice and snow to melt across most of the planet (during the decades 1979–88 and 2010–19, the average monthly August–October area of the Arctic Sea ice has shrunk by about a quarter, resulting in the loss of about 2 million square kilometers of ice).
At the same time, climate change and migration are interconnected and complex issues that will have significant implications for individuals, communities, and countries around the world. Climate change can lead to environmental degradation, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, droughts, and desertification, which can make certain areas uninhabitable or less suitable for human habitation, forcing people to move in search of better living conditions.
So, what do we do now?
First, we must react quickly. By 2030, most likely, we will reach between +1.5 and 2°C vs. today, which is the maximum limit possible to prevent dramatic changes. The time is now to invest in adaptation measures. ‘Adaptation’ means to address climate change by building more secure infrastructures; to promote better water management, coastal protection, land use planning, agricultural adaptation, ecosystem restoration; and to develop early warning systems and provide heat mitigation, health adaptation, and community engagement solutions.
Second, we must stabilize the climate through the end of the century by reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration. Renewable energies, energy efficiency, and electrical mobility can have a significant impact on reaching the goal of reducing emissions by 90% by 2050 (as supported also by the European Union), but, still, it will not be enough.
We need to reach, at the same time, net zero emissions (carbon neutrality), which can only be achieved by the biological sequestration of carbon dioxide, namely planting new trees, and capturing carbon in the agricultural soil. The challenge in front of us is to react as quickly as possible, via the implementation of global, national, and regional policies, while leveraging already available solutions and testing new ones that are still to come. The time is now!
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